Autumn & the Expected Surge in New Home Listings Autumn is the second biggest selling season of the year, and September is typically the single month with the highest number of new listings. Autumn is a relatively short market season, running from after Labor Day until mid-November, when the market begins its slide into its winter-holiday slowdown. It is particularly important for the luxury home segment as its market activity usually plunges to an almost standstill at Thanksgiving and doesn’t revive until February or early March, i.e. this 2-month window is basically it for the next 5 to 6 months.

At this point, we are waiting to see if the expected, dramatic spike in new listings occurs as usual, and how buyers react to it if it does.

Our full report on seasonality is here: Seasonality & the SF Market

 

------------------------------------------------------------ Annual Median Sales Price Appreciation since 1994 for San Francisco houses, condos and TICs (Prices in thousands of dollars)

2015 to 2016 YTD, the overall median price for condos, which now comprise the majority of home sales in the city, remained exactly the same at $1,100,000: Among other issues, this market segment is clearly being impacted by an increase in new-project condos coming on market, altering the supply and demand dynamic. The house median price increased 6% to $1,328,000: This is far below the appreciation rates of the previous 4 years and is being driven mostly by continued demand for "more affordable" houses selling below $2 million. TICs, which only comprise 4% to 5% of home sales basically stayed flat year over year.

 

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Where to Buy a Home in San Francisco for the Money You Wish to Pay

We just issued our semi-annual update on home prices by property type and neighborhood. Below are 3 of the 8 charts in the analysis. The complete report is here: San Francisco Neighborhood Home Prices

26% of SF house sales were under $1 million so far in 2016; In 2011, that percentage was 75%.

------------------------------------------------------------ Paragon Special Reports on San Francisco and Bay Area Markets & Housing Affordability In August we issued 2 reports that received extensive media coverage in Bloomberg News & BusinessWeek, WSJ Mansion Global, San Francisco Business Times, KGO, KTVU, KCBS, SFGate, Curbed and others, even some international publications. Below is a sampling of the many analyses in the reports, as well as links to the full articles.

Full report: Income, Affluence, Poverty & the Cost of Bay Area Housing

Full report: Bay Area Real Estate Markets & Demographics

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These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Statistics are generalities, longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term, and we will always know more about what’s actually going on in the present, in the future. New construction condos not listed or sold on MLS are not counted in these statistics, though they often affect market dynamics.