As of August 8th, mortgage rates had declined to their lowest point in over a year, while financial markets were experiencing very substantial volatility. Most analysts believe the Fed will finally begin to drop their benchmark rate in September (pending a positive inflation report in mid-August). Lower interest rates, of course, have considerable effect on the cost of homeownership for those financing their purchase, and a sustained decline would almost certainly spark increased market activity – not only of buyers, but potentially of sellers who held off listing their homes in the past 2 years due to the “mortgage lock-in” effect. Much depends on the scale of any decline in rates – as well as possible changes in other economic conditions – through the end of the year.

Following the typical seasonal trend, the market cooled in summer from what is usually its most heated selling season in spring. New-listing and sales activity slowed, overbidding declined, and homes took longer to go into contract. The 3-month-rolling median house sales price often dips in summer after peaking in spring (due to a number of factors) but it remains higher year-over-year – as is the median condo sales price after a July jump. The market usually sees a dramatic rebound in new listings in September to fuel the autumn selling season, but August may see an “unseasonal” burst of sales activity if the decline in interest rates continues in coming weeks.

Finding comprehensive and affordable homeowners’ insurance remains challenging: According to the CA Association of Realtors, nearly 7 percent of recent real estate transactions statewide fell out of escrow due to insurance issues, but noted that “The state's largest insurance regulatory reform in 30 years is set to go into effect by the end of this year.” Hopefully, this will result in substantial improvement to a very difficult situation in many of our markets.

Report created in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Statistics can be affected by a variety of factors and are best considered indicators of change rather than exact measurements. All numbers are approximate and may change with late-reported activity. Economic indicators can be volatile.

San Francisco HOUSE Price Trends since 1990

Monthly Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. More often than not, median sales prices peak for the year in spring.

San Francisco Value Trends since 2005

3-Month-Rolling, Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*

Until the pandemic, the median $/sq.ft. value for condos (green columns) ran significantly higher than for houses, but that is no longer the case.

Median $/sq.ft. value is a general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the Median $/sq.ft. value is a general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.

Median House Sales Price Since 1999

San Francisco 1st Half Median Sales Price*

1st half (January-June) median house sales prices going back 25 years: After enormous rates of appreciation during the dotcom, subprime and high-tech/IPO booms – interrupted temporarily by the 2008 market crash – appreciation slowed after the pandemic hit and the subsequent changes in economic conditions. It may be that an “AI boom” is just beginning to affect San Francisco.

Median House Sales Price Appreciation

San Francisco % Change in 1st Half Median Sales Price*

Comparing year-over-year, 1st half (January-June) median house sales prices to calculate approximate appreciation rates over various periods of time. Inflation over the 25-year period was approximately 89%.**

Equity appreciation of cash investment (downpayment + closing costs) can be several orders of magnitude higher than appreciation of purchase price.

Appreciation rates are indicators of change rather than exact measurements of price changes for any particular home.

San Francisco CONDO Price Trends since 2005

Median Condo Sales Price, 3-Month Rolling

Generally speaking, over the last 5-6 years, Bay Area median condo sales prices have not seen the appreciation rates common in house markets.

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, and longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.

Median Condo Sales Price Since 1999

San Francisco 1st Half Median Sales Price*

1st half (January-June) median condo sales prices going back 25 years: After high rates of appreciation during the dotcom, subprime and high-tech/IPO booms, median SF condo prices have fallen since the pandemic hit and the subsequent changes in economic conditions.

Since the pandemic hit, condo price trends have varied between San Francisco neighborhoods, with downtown being most negatively affected.

Median Condo Sales Price Appreciation

San Francisco % Change in 1st Half Median Sales Price*

Comparing year-over-year, 1st half (January-June) median condo sales prices to calculate approximate appreciation rates over various periods of time. Inflation over the 25-year period was approximately 89%.**

Since the pandemic hit, the SF condo market has experienced median sales price declines, though trends have varied between different neighborhoods.

Appreciation rates are indicators of change rather than exact measurements of price changes for any particular home.

San Francisco CONDO Prices: Downtown vs. Non-Downtown

6-Month-Rolling, Median Condo Sales Prices since 2005*

Comparing median condo sales prices in the greater Downtown/South of Market/Civic Center area (the center of large-project, new-condo construction, office buildings and high-tech employment) – delineated by the white line – with the rest of San Francisco (mostly smaller, older buildings, in less urban environments) – delineated by the green line.

Bay Area Median House Values by County

2024 YTD Sales: By Bedroom/Bath Count*

Bay Area Median Condo & Townhouse Values by County

2024 YTD Sales: By Property Type & Bedroom/Bath Count*

*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2024 by mid-July. Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Numbers approximate, and data constantly changes as new sales occur. Not all sales are reported to MLS.

New Listings Coming on Market

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

As is the usual trend in summer, the number of new listings has continued to fall from spring’s high. New-listing activity will typically spike back up dramatically in September to fuel the relatively short fall selling season.

Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month*

San Francisco Homes Market

The number of active and coming-soon listings on 8/1/24 were slightly down year over year. Of the listings for sale, 26% were houses, and 74% were condos, co-ops, TICs & townhouses.*

The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contracat, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.

Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Though continuing to decline from spring in the usual seasonal trend, the number of listings going into contract (pending sale) in July 2024 was significantly higher year-over-year.

The # of listings going into contract measures buyer demand, but is often impacted by the supply of new listings available to buy.

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

San Francisco: Absorption Rate by Month

In July 2024, the absorption rate for houses was about 35%, and for condos, 16%, reflecting their respective supply and demand dynamics.

Absorption rate measures buyer demand vs. the supply of listings for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market. Absorption rate typically rises and falls to seasonal trends in demand.

Monthly Home Sales Volume

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

The number of home sales in July continued to drop from the spring high, as is the typical seasonal trend. So far in 2024 YTD, sales volume was 7% higher than the same period of 2023.

Over the past 3 months, 49% of SF sales were houses, and 51% were condos, co-ops and TICs.

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.

San Francisco Luxury House Sales*

Houses Selling for $5 Million+ since 2018

Active Listings (not illustrated on this sales chart): As of early August, there were 35 houses listed for sale priced $5 million to $9.999 million, and 13 priced $10 million+ (including 3 at $20 million+).*

Spring is usually the period of highest sales volume for luxury homes, though it is not unusual for autumn to see a substantial spike up in activity after the typical summer slowdown.

San Francisco Luxury Condo & Co-op Sales*

Units Selling for $2.5 Million+ since 2018

Active Listings (not illustrated on this sales chart): As of early August, there were 70 condos and co-ops listed for sale priced $2.5 million to $4.999 million, and 23 priced $5 million+. (Does not include new-project condos not listed in MLS.)*

Spring & fall are usually the most active seasons for luxury condo and co-op sales, while summer and mid-winter are typically much slower.

Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Houses (green line) continue to sell significantly faster than condos (blue line). Homes typically sell fastest in spring and early autumn.

Measuring how long it takes for sold listings to accept offers. Sales in 1 month mostly reflects accepted offers in the previous month.

Overbidding List Prices in San Francisco

Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price

This statistic fluctuates according to seasonal demand trends, and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier. This statistic can be distorted by strategic underpricing strategies by listing agents.

Overbidding is typically caused by buyer competition for new listings. The overall percentage for SF home sales in July 2024 was 57%, but the % for houses was 75%, and for condos, 38%, illustrating the different dynamics between the 2 markets.

Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage

San Francisco Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality

House sales (yellow line) averaged a sales price 10% over asking price in July 2024, while condos (orange line) averaged a sale price 1% below.

Overbidding has been much more common in house sales than condo sales. This statistic can be distorted by strategic underpricing strategies by listing agents.

Price Reductions on Active Listings

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

The number of price reductions in July 2024 dropped from June, and was down 11% year over year.

The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season, but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. It’s not unusual for price reductions to peak in October before the mid-winter holiday slowdown begins in mid-November.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.