Market Dynamics & Seasonality - New Listings & Price Reductions

As is expected, we saw a spike in new listings in September, flooding the market. Anecdotally, I think buyers were fatigued by the market as well as world events, and simply didn’t show up. Sellers who were holding out back in the spring for the so-called “Uber effect” found themselves without the glut of new millionaires they were hoping for. I called this out back in May. Consequently, properties sat on the market, and we saw a higher than usual rate of price reductions in October. This is an object lesson for canny buyers: Late September and October can be an opportune time if you keep your finger on the pulse of the market.

The market is now deep into its seasonal plunge in activity, which hits its nadir in December. (These charts are updated through October. November saw its usual big drop in new listing activity.)

Bay Area Prices & Market Sizes

Median House Sale Prices by County Q3 2019

Bay Area 12-Month Sales Volume by County

Appreciation in Very Expensive Markets

This next chart looks at percentage appreciation since 2012 in the most expensive markets of 5 Bay Area Counties. (In Marin, Tiburon, a very expensive, but not the most expensive market in the county, is graphed due to data issues.) This chart does not delineate prices, which vary hugely, only estimated percentage home price changes over time.

Bay Area Ultra-Luxury Home Markets - Active Listings vs. 12 Months Sales

SF has the third largest market for homes of $5,000,000+ in the Bay Area.

Home Prices & Market Statistics by SF District

Median House Prices by Realtor District

As always, these prices should be considered very general approximations of prices in complex district markets containing homes of widely varying size and quality.

Median Condo Prices by Realtor District

Market Statistics by Realtor District

As mentioned in previous reports, market dynamics in San Francisco are often - but not always - separated by price segment as much as by neighborhood/district location. More expensive segments not unusually have somewhat softer supply and demand dynamics. However, District 5, one of the city's more expensive districts, has been bucking that trend in 2019.

Districts dominated by condo sales also typically have softer dynamics than those dominated by house sales.