The changes in market dynamics that began in late spring/early summer 2022 generally continued in autumn due to the ongoing economic headwinds, including high inflation and interest rates, reduced consumer confidence, and volatile stock markets, though all have fluctuated significantly over the period, and some readings have recently improved. The great majority of indicators – home prices and appreciation rates, sales volumes, overbidding, days-on-market, months supply of inventory, and so on – continue to describe a market that has substantially cooled and “corrected” since spring 2022, when it appears that a long, dramatic, 10-year market upcycle peaked. The correction in San Francisco has been somewhat larger than in other Bay Area counties. (Note that a “correction” is not remotely similar to a crash, such as was seen during the subprime loan/foreclosure crisis.) In recent months, luxury home sales have seen larger year-over-year percentage declines than the general market. But thousands of Bay Area homes continue to sell, some very quickly at over asking price: With the shifts in market conditions, pricing correctly has become an imperative for sellers.

December typically sees the low point of new-listing and sales activity – with an increasing number of homes taken off the market to await the new year – but listing, buying and selling continues. This can be an excellent time for buyers to aggressively negotiate prices, though the supply of listings to choose from declines. The market usually begins to wake up in mid-January and then quickly accelerates in early spring: In the Bay Area, depending on the weather and economic conditions, the “early spring” market can begin as soon as February.

The single, most closely watched factor will be interest rates, since they have such an outsized impact on monthly housing costs and affordability, as well as on stock markets and consumer confidence. At the end of this report is a link to our extended review of macroeconomic issues.

San Francisco House Price Trends since 1990

Monthly Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling Average

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.

Year over year, the 3-month rolling, median house sales price in November 2022, $1,600,000, was down about 12%.

San Francisco Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates since 1990

Y-o-Y Percentage Change in Annual Median HOUSE Sales Price*

Annual appreciation rates often varied widely between submarkets within the county. How this chart applies to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. Annual data may disguise significant changes in price appreciation trends within the calendar year.

1990 to 2021, the average annual inflation rate was approximately 2.5% (per WorldData.info).

San Francisco House Market

August – November 2022 House Sales by Price Segment*

Sales by Bedroom Count:

• 2 BR 177

• 3 BR 278

• 4 BR 186

• 5 BR 41

• 6+ BR 10

Only 3 house sales of more than $10 million were reported to MLS during the period.

San Francisco Condo Price Trends since 2005

3-Month Rolling, Median 2-BR Condo Sales Prices

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, and longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.

Year over year, the 3-month rolling, median 2-bedroom condo sales price in November 2022, $1,250,000, was down about 6%, but there have been significant differences in price declines between city districts.

San Francisco Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates since 1990

Y-o-Y Percentage Change in Annual Median CONDO Sales Price*

New condos have been built in their tens of thousands over the period illustrated, constantly changing the mix of units sold, so year-over-year comparisons are not necessarily apples to apples. Annual data may disguise significant changes in price appreciation trends within the calendar year.

San Francisco is the only Bay Area County in which condo sales outnumber house sales.

San Francisco Condo, Co-op, Townhouse & TIC Market

August – November 2022 Sales by Price Segment*

Sales by Unit Size

• Studio 30

• 1 BR 242

• 2 BR 371

• 3 BR 167

• 4+ BR 36

Approximately 85% of these sales were condos, 11% TICs, 2% co-ops, and 2% townhouses.

There were 7 sales of$5 million+ reported to MLS during the period.

Many factors affect values, but particularly in larger projects, the floor a unit is on – and the views it offers – is a major one.

Bay Area Median Large House Values by County

August – November 2022 Sales, 5+ Bedroom/4+ Bath Count*

*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 11/21/22. Excluding “fixer uppers.” Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers approximate, and may change with late reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Santa Cruz only had 7 sales meeting the criteria in the period.

Generally speaking, the largest homes are more likely to be found in more expensive neighborhoods.

Bay Area Median House Values by County

August – November 2022 Sales, by Bedroom/Bath Count*

*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 11/21/22. Excluding “fixer uppers.” Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers approximate, and may change with late reported sales.

Bay Area Median Home Values by County

August – November 2022 Sales, by Bedroom/Bath Count*

*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 11/21/22. Excluding “fixer uppers.” Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers approximate, and may change with late reported sales.

San Francisco has by far the largest luxury condo market in the Bay Area, one factor behind its much higher median condo values.

Monthly Sales Volume – Longer-Term Trends

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

As illustrated, sales volume usually ebbs and flows by season: Up in spring, down in summer, back up in fall, and way down in mid-winter.

Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS.

Year over year, November 2022 home sales were down about 45%.

San Francisco Higher-Price Home Sales

Homes Selling for $3 Million+: Market Dynamics & Seasonality

The number of higher-price sales typically ebbs and flows dramatically by season. Sales usually follow the time of offers being accepted by 3 to 5 weeks.

Year over year, the number of $3M home sales in November 2022 was down about 55%.

Luxury Home Sales, $5 Million+*

Bay Area Luxury Home Market, Year-over-Year Comparison

Year over year, November 2022$5 million+ Bay Area home sales were down about 53%.

Percentage of All-Cash Home Purchases

California Sales, by Year, since 1998*

All-cash purchases in CA soared during the foreclosure crisis when large institutional investors entered the single-family buy-to-rent market, buying thousands of homes at foreclosure-sale prices, but all-cash buyers can also be smaller, rental-property investors, “flippers,” international buyers, and owner-occupiers. Soaring interest rates were presumably a factor in the 2022 CA % increase in all-cash purchases.

According to CAR, in the Bay Area, the % of all-cash buyers declined to 20% in 2022 from 22% in 2021, a reversal of the state trend.*

San Francisco County Housing

Housing Supply by Era of Construction*

Multiple-unit housing of all kinds – apartments, condos, co-ops, TICS, and social housing – make up about 66% of SF’s 351,000 occupied housing units, and single family dwellings 34%. About 60% of city housing is tenant occupied.

New-project condos have dominated new housing construction since the late 1970’s (though many SF condos were built in other periods as apartments, then legally converted into condos).

San Francisco House Size by Era of Construction

Median House Square Footage*

Unlike other Bay Area Counties, the vast majority of existing houses in San Francisco were constructed before 1960. As land became scarce and affluence increased, the median size of houses built grew steadily, and then soared since 2000 – even as the number of new houses built dwindled.

Not many new houses are built in SF anymore, but they’re usually quite large.

Different neighborhoods were largely built out during different time periods.

Overbidding List Prices in San Francisco

Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price, since 2018

In the latest month, 44% of sales closed over final list price, down from 73% in April. By property type, the November 2022 % for condos was 30% and for houses, 57%.

Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month. Seasonal ebbs and flows are typical.

Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage

San Francisco Overbidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Houses have higher average overbidding percentages than condos, but both have plunged since April 2022, and on average, condos are now selling below list price. This statistic also fluctuates by season.

Average Days on Market – Sold Listings

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Measuring how long it takes for sold listings to accept offers. Houses have much lower average days-on-market readings than condos. Numbers have generally been climbing rapidly from April 2022. Chart illustrates 2-month-moving trend.

This statistic ebbs and flows seasonally, and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.

New Listings Coming on Market

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Listings Accepting Offers- Longer-Term Trends

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

The number of listings accepting offers is a leading indicator of sales volume in the following 3 to 6 weeks.

It’s not unusual for market activity to slow down dramatically in mid-late summer, before rebounding during the autumn market (prior to the big mid-winter drop.) Fall 2022 did not see the typical spike up in sales.

San Francisco Homes Market

Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month*

As of 12/1/22, 69% of these listings were condos, co-ops, townhouses and TICs, and 31% were houses.*

The number of active listings has been rapidly dropping as the market enters its mid-winter slowdown period.

The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.

Active Listings on Market – Longer-Term Trends

San Francisco Real Estate Market Dynamics & Seasonality

The number of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) how many new listings come on market, 2) how quickly buyers snap them up, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) how many sellers pull their homes off the market without selling. The number typically ebbs and flows by season.

This is a snapshot measure of how many active listings can be expected on any given day of the specified month.

Price Reductions on Active Listings

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season, but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market.

Price reductions usually peak in October before the mid-winter slowdown begins in November.

San Francisco HOUSE Sales Statistics

Summer-Fall 2022 Market*

* 4 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, through late October. “Sales within 30 days” refers to %of home sales into contract within 30 days. Data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Outlier data adjusted when identified. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Some “highest” sales included here were not reported to MLS.

San Francisco 2-BR CONDO Sales Statistics

Summer-Fall 2022: 2-Bedroom, 2-Bath Condos*

* 4 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, through late October. “Sales within 30 days” refers to % of home sales into contract within 30 days. Data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Many new-project condo sales are not reported to MLS.

Our reports are not intended to convince you regarding a course of action or to predict the future, but to provide, to the best of our ability, straightforward information and good-faith analysis to assist you in making your own informed decisions. Statistics should be considered very general indicators, and all numbers should be considered approximate. How they apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.