In 2024, San Francisco median house and condo sales prices increased year over year, though still running below the 2021-2022 pandemic-boom highs. The numbers of new listings and sales rose from 2023, but volumes remained well below long-term norms. Fueled by rising stock markets, luxury home sales outperformed the general market. Overbidding of asking price increased, and, on average, listings sold a few days faster than last year. Details follow within this report.

Macroeconomically, there were quite a few ups and downs in 2024. The inflation rate dropped from 3.1% to 2.7%, a welcome decline, but not as large and consistent as hoped. In September, the Fed reduced its benchmark rate for the first time in 4 years, followed by 2 more cuts in November and December, but, confounding expectations, interest rates rose, ending the year higher than when it began. The Fed also released a tentative forecast of only 2 small rate reductions in 2025, but the Fed often alters its future “guidance” depending on economic developments. Despite significant volatility, stock markets saw very substantial appreciation in 2024, boosting household wealth, especially for the more affluent. Consumer confidence rose in the second half of the year to end 6% higher than a year earlier and seems poised to improve further.

Real estate markets are fiercely seasonal, and as usual, December was the slowest month for both new listings and listings going into contract. Activity typically rebounds early in the year and then accelerates rapidly into spring, which customarily sees the year’s most heated market conditions. In the Bay Area, if the weather cooperates, the “spring” market often begins well before the official start of the season, but much depends on political/economic factors that are challenging to predict.

There seems to be something about starting a new year that renews optimism for the future and motivates people to move forward with life plans – that often include real estate.

Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available in early January. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.

San Francisco Median House Sales Prices

Median House Sales Price by Year, 1993 – Present*

The median house sales price in 2024 rose about 4% from 2023.

Median prices are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. San Francisco contains neighborhoods of widely varying values.

San Francisco Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates since 1990

Y-o-Y Percentage Change in Annual Median HOUSE Sales Price*

Annual appreciation rates often varied widely between submarkets within the county. How this chart applies to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median HOUSE Sales Prices – Selected Neighborhoods*

This is a sampling of values across some of San Francisco’s 70+ neighborhoods. w/ high sales prices of $5 million+*

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general measurement of value that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales, and how it applies to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Many factors affect home values: architectural style, quality of construction, square footage, condition, amenities, light, views, privacy, outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on.

San Francisco Median Condo Prices

Median Condo Sales Price by Year, 1993 – Present*

The 2024 median condo sales price rose about 1% from 2023.

Median prices are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. The city contains condo projects and neighborhoods of widely varying values and appreciation trends.

San Francisco Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates since 1990

Y-o-Y Percentage Change in Annual Median CONDO Sales Price*

New condos have been built in their tens of thousands over the period illustrated, constantly changing the mix of units sold, so year-over-year comparisons are not necessarily apples to apples.

San Francisco Condo Prices

Median CONDO Sales Prices – Selected Neighborhoods*

This is a sampling of values across some of San Francisco’s 70+ neighborhoods. With 2024 high sales of $3 million+*

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Many factors affect condo prices: square footage, architectural style, views, quality of construction, the floor the unit is on, condition, HOA amenities and cost, deeded outdoor space, parking, and so on.

San Francisco Median $/Sq.Ft. Values

Median Home Values by Year since 2005*

Median $/sq.ft. values ticked up in 2024 for both houses (4%) and condos (1%).

Median values are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Values vary widely across submarkets within the county.

San Francisco Annual New-Listing Volume

Number of New Listings Coming on Market by Year, since 2005*

The number of new listings in 2024 rose about 5.5% from 2023, but remained relatively low by long-term norms.

San Francisco Annual Sales Volume

Number of Home Sales by Year, since 2005*

2024 sales volume increased about 11.5% from 2023, but remained very low by historical standards.

Sales volume is affected by both buyer demand and the number of listings available to purchase, which are deeply impacted by positive and negative economic conditions.

San Francisco Annual Sales - $5,000,000+

Number of Luxury Home Sales by Year, since 2005*

2024 home sales of $5 million+ rebounded from 2023.

Sales of higher-price homes are affected by buyer demand, the number of listings available to purchase, and appreciation trends – all of which are impacted by economic and demographic conditions. As appreciation occurs over time, homes that would have sold for under $5 million, then sell for over that price threshold (and vice versa if prices fall).

2024 Home Sales by Price Segment*

San Francisco Residential Market

82% of sales under $1,000,000 were condos, co-ops and TICs. 52% of sales of $1m - $1,499,999 were condos, co-ops and TICs. 0.4% of sales were for $10 million+.

Sales by Property Type*

• House 48%

• Condo 44%

• TIC 5.5%

• Co-op 1.5%

• Townhouse 1%

San Francisco – Speed of Sale

Average Days on Market, Annual Readings by Year, since 2005*

This statistic is an indicator of the strength of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale, measuring – for homes sold – the average time between a listing coming on market and offer acceptance. On average, houses have been selling much faster than condos.

San Francisco – Overbidding Asking Price

Percentage of Sales Over List Price, Annual Readings, since 2005*

Generally speaking, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale, the more buyers compete to win the sale by overbidding asking price. Especially since the pandemic, SF overbidding percentages for houses have been much higher than those for condos.

San Francisco: Overbidding & Underbidding

Sales Price to List Price Percentage, Annual Readings, since 2005*

100% = an average sales price at the original asking price; 104% = an average sales price 4% above asking; 98% = an average sales price 2% below asking.

Houses typically see much higher overbidding percentages than condos, which sold, on average, slightly below asking price in 2024.

Bay Area Median House Values by County

2024 Sales: By Bedroom/Bath Count*

Bay Area Median Condo & Townhouse Values

2024 Sales: By Property Type & Bedroom/Bath Count*

*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2024 by mid-December. Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Numbers approximate, and data constantly changes as new sales occur. Not all sales are reported to MLS.

How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

San Francisco Homes Market

Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month*

Market seasonality: January begins with a very low count of active listings, but inventory can be expected to increase rapidly as the new year’s market gets underway.

The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the $ of new listings coming on the market, 2)how quickly biuers put them into contract, 3( the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.

Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Market seasonality: Per the common trend, the number of listings going into contract hit its low point for the year in December. Activity will typically accelerate rapidly through spring.

Monthly Home Sales Volume*

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Market seasonality: Home sales numbers usually hit their nadir in January, mostly reflecting the big slowdown in accepted offer activity in December. Sales then quickly increase through spring.*

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.

San Francisco Higher-Price & Luxury Home Sales*

Homes Selling for $4 Million+ since 2018

Market seasonality: Higher-price and luxury home sales typically climb rapidly in spring, drop in summer, rebound strongly in fall, and plunge in mid-winter.*

Selected Economic Indicators

Inflation, the Fed, mortgage interest rates, stock markets, all-cash sales, state population change, difficulty in obtaining homeowner’s insurance

Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI), 2021 – 2024 YTD*

Year-over-Year Percentage Change, by Month

The general “CPI-All Items” inflation reading for November 2024 ticked up to 2.7%.*

In recent months, inflation has not been declining as the Fed had hoped, influencing their decisions on further rate cuts.

Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981

& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*

After 11 increases from March 2022, the Fed kept their benchmark rate unchanged from August 2023 to August 2024. On 9/18/24, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and by a quarter point on 11/7/24 & 12/18/24. It recently indicated the expectation to cut rates by just half a point in 2025.

Timeline:

• Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate

• Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92

• Dotcom crash, 9/11 attack: Fed drops fed fund rate 12 times, 2001-02

• Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08

• High-tech & pandemic booms

• 2019, 2020, 2021: The Fed drops rate to effectively zero

• 2022/2023/2024: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024

Mortgage Interest Rates in 2023-2025 YTD

30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*

Instead of dropping in Q4 2024 as almost universally predicted, interest rates rebounded higher despite the Fed reducing its benchmark rate.

Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on January 2, 2025, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.91%.

Financial Markets in 2024 – 2025 YTD

Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/24

2024 financial markets saw significant volatility, but ended up with dramatic appreciation in the major stock market indices. This had a large impact on household wealth, especially of more affluent households.

Percentage of Homes Purchased All-Cash

California Real Estate Market since 2005*

In recent years, the percentages of all-cash home purchases have been running at the highest levels since 2012. Percentages probably run even higher in more affluent markets (such as the San Francisco Bay Area).

State Percentage Population Changes since the Pandemic Hit

U.S. Census Estimates, Selected States: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2024*

In the 12 months through 7/1/24, CA population change turned positive again, though, as illustrated here, still slightly down since 2020.

The factors behind state population changes are net domestic migration (state to state), net-foreign immigration, and natural causes (births & deaths).

Small percentage population changes in a highly populated state can lead to large percentage changes in states with much lower populations.

Percentage of Buyers Having Difficulties Obtaining Insurance

State of California, in 2023 & 2024, by Property Location*

Finding comprehensive, affordable homeowner’s insurance continues to be an increasingly challenging issue for CA buyers (and homeowners). Unfortunately, costs are expected to continue to rise in 2025, though, as illustrated, the situation varies by location.

Why People Moved

U.S. Census, 2023 National Survey Estimates*

Chart numbers apply to residents aged 16+ years.

Approximately 7.7% of the total U.S. population moved in 2023.

53% moved within the same county, 42% moved out of county, and 5% moved from abroad.

39% of those moving were aged 20 to 29; 28% were 30 to 44; 19%, 45 to 64; and 8% were 65+.

Prior to moving, approximately 36% lived in owner-occupied homes, and 64% in rentals.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.