In early August, we mentioned agents reporting that buyer activity – renewed interest in getting back into the market, visits to open houses, and so on – was picking up due to a number of issues: Price reductions, less competition, the drop in interest rates, and the dramatic recovery in stock markets. And a small rebound in SF sales did show up in August data – sales usually tick down in August from July – though volume was still well below last year.

Across the Bay Area, year-over-year, home-price appreciation rates and overbidding statistics have continued to drop, and days-on-market to climb. In August, the number of new listings coming on market was lower year over year, and the number of active listings for sale declined, though still significantly higher than last year. There is usually a dramatic jump in new listing activity after Labor Day: In fact, September is typically the single month with the highest number of new listings, which then fuels autumn sales.

As of early September, interest rates have increased again and stock markets declined once more: They continue to see substantial short-term volatility and it remains difficult to confidently predict their future movements and effects on real estate markets. The next major indicator of buyer and seller psychology and market dynamics will be what occurs during the next 2 months of the autumn selling season, prior to the mid-November to mid-January holiday slowdown, typically the slowest market of the year.

Our reports are not intended to convince you regarding a course of action or to predict the future, but to provide, to the best of our ability, straightforward information and good-faith analysis to assist you in making your own informed decisions. Statistics should be considered very general indicators, and all numbers should be considered approximate. How they apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

San Francisco Median House Price Trends

Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month-Rolling, 2018 – Present

Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales, and can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, and it is not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in spring. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.

San Francisco Year-over-Year House Appreciation Rates since 2020

Percentage Change in Year-over-Year, 3-Month-Rolling Median House Sales Price*

Comparing the 3-month-rolling median house sales price with the same period of the previous year to calculate the percentage change. Median sales prices can be affected by a variety of factors other than changes in fair market value, as can year-over-year appreciation rates.

Using 3-month-rolling data smooths out median sales prices and year-over-year appreciation rates, but may lag shorter-term changes in the market.

San Francisco Median Condo Price Trends

Median Condo Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling, 2018 – Present

Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly fluctuations are common: Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.

San Francisco Year-over-Year Condo Appreciation Rates since 2020

Percentage Change in Year-over-Year, 3-Month-Rolling Median CONDO Sales Price*

Comparing the 3-month rolling median condo sales price with the same period of the previous year to calculate the percentage change. Median sales prices can be affected by a variety of factors other than changes in fair market value, as can year-over-year appreciation rates.

Using 3-month-rolling data smooths out median sales prices and year-over-year appreciation rates, but may lag shorter-term changes in the market.

San Francisco Residential Market

12 Months Sales Volumes by Property Type*

San Francisco has by far the largest condo market in the Bay Area, accounting for just over half of all sales in this graphic. This includes an estimate of new-project condo sales not reported to MLS. Both co-ops and TICs (tenancy-in-common units) are rarely found in the Bay Area outside San Francisco. Houses make up the majority of residential sales in all Bay Area Counties except San Francisco.

New Listings Coming on Market

San Francisco Market Dynamics: Year-over-Year Comparison

Comparing August 2022 with August 2021, the number of new listings was down 11%. September typically sees a dramatic spike in new listings coming on market.

New Listings Coming on Market

Longer-Term Perspective

The number of new listings typically climbs rapidly through spring, drops in summer, spikes up dramatically in early fall, and plunges in mid-winter. It’ll be interesting to see whether we reach comparable peak of new listings this month.

Active Listings

San Francisco Market: Year-over-Year Comparison

This is a snapshot measure of how many active listings can be expected on any given day of the specified month. As of September 1, 2022, there were 1253 active and coming soon listings posted to MLS: 71% of these listings were condos, co-ops and TICs, and 29% were houses.

Comparing August 2022 with August 2021, the number of active listings on a given day of the month was up about 23%, but has been falling since June.

Active Listings on Market – Longer-Term Trends

San Francisco Real Estate Market Dynamics & Seasonality

This is a snapshot measure of how many active listings can be expected on any given day of the specified month.

The number of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) how many new listings come on market, 2) how quickly buyers snap them up, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) how many sellers pull their homes off the market without selling. The number typically ebbs and flows by season.

Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)

San Francisco Market Dynamics: Year-over-Year Comparison

Comparing August 2022 with August 2021, the number of listings accepting offers was down about 25%.

Listings Accepting Offers: Longer-Term Trends

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

The number of listings accepting offers is a leading indicator of sales volume in the following 3 to 6 weeks. It’s not unusual for market activity to slow down dramatically in mid-late summer, before rebounding during the autumn market (prior to the big mid-winter drop.)

Price Reductions on Active Listings

San Francisco Market Dynamics: Year-over-Year Comparison

Though still running quite a bit higher on a year-over-year basis, the number of price reductions has dropped dramatically since June.

The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season, but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. Price reductions usually peak in October before the mid-winter slowdown begins in November.

Monthly Sales Volume*

San Francisco Market Dynamics: Year-over-Year Comparison

Comparing August 2022 with August 2021, the number of home sales was down about 29%, but up 5% from July 2022. Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted-offer activity in the previous month.

Monthly Sales Volume – Longer-Term Trends

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

As illustrated, sales volume usually ebbs and flows by season: Up in spring, down in summer, back up in fall, and way down in mid-winter.

Higher-Price Home Sales Volume

San Francisco Market Dynamics: Sales $3 Million+

Comparing August 2022 with August 2021, the number of $3m+ home sales was down about 45%, but up about 17% from July 2022.

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted-offer activity in the previous month.

What You Get Where: Buying a Large Home in the Bay Area

2022 YTD Home Sales of 5+ Bedrooms, 4+ Baths, 4000+ Square Feet*

Overbidding List Prices in San Francisco

Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price, since 2018

In the latest month, 54% of sales closed over final list price, down from 73% in April.

Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month. Seasonal ebbs and flows are typical.

Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage

San Francisco Overbidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Houses have much higher average overbidding percentages than condos. Both have seen large declines since April 2022 – 16 points for houses, 8.5 points for condos. This statistic fluctuates by season, and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.

Average Days on Market

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Houses have much lower average days-on-market readings than condos. Numbers have been climbing rapidly from April 2022. Chart illustrates 2-month-moving trend. This statistic ebbs and flows seasonally, and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.