July 2024 Market Report
Photo by Kellen Riggin on Unsplash
The median house sales price in Q2 2024 rose 6% from Q2 2023, while the median condo sales price declined by 2.5%.
The number of homes for sale on July 1st rose 3% year over year. San Francisco has, so far, not seen the large increases in listings in 2024 common in other Bay Area counties.
Q2 home sales rose 9% year over year, but homes selling for $3 million+ jumped 29%, and $5 million+ sales soared 54%: Very affluent households have been playing an outsized role in the housing market since late 2023 (when financial markets began their rebound).
Overbidding percentages hit their highest readings, and average days on market their lowest readings in 2 years. The number of price reductions declined year over year.
Market dynamics continue to be much more heated in the house market than in the condo market, reflecting significant differences in supply and demand in those segments.
As of early July, mortgage rates continue to hover around 7%, though hopes remain for at least one reduction in the Fed’s benchmark rate in 2024. Stock markets have sustained their extraordinary rise. The homeowner’s insurance situation remains challenging, with policies often difficult to locate and increasingly expensive. And the latest Census estimates revealed the Bay Area is growing older, with fewer children and a rising number of residents aged 65+.
Report created in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Statistics can be affected by a variety of factors and are best considered indicators of change rather than exact measurements. All numbers are approximate and may change with late-reported activity. Economic indicators can be volatile.
Mortgage Interest Rates since Early 2023
30-Year Fixed-Rate Loans, Daily Average Readings*
*Per https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/: “Rate offerings vary—sometimes substantially—from lender to lender... The index is expressed as an average.” Daily rates can change quickly. Data from sources deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. All numbers approximate.
As of July 5, 2024, the daily average rate for 30-year fixed-rate was 7.03%
Different sources of mortgage data, such as Mortgage Daily News and FHLMC, vary in their methodologies to calculate average daily and weekly rates. Rates vary according to property, price, borrower and lender.
Nasdaq Composite Index
January 1995 to 2024 YTD
The Nasdaq Composite Index has been on a spectacular run of appreciation, repeatedly hitting dramatic new highs in 2024. (The S&P 500, not illustrated here, has also hit successive new highs.) The effect on household wealth – especially for more affluent homebuyers – has been substantial.
San Francisco House Price Trends
Median House Sales Prices, 2012 – Present, by Quarter
As reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Broker Metrics or Infosparks. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported sales.
Year over year, the Q2 2024 SF median house sales price was up 6%.
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Seasonal fluctuations are common, and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in Q2. Sales prices lag changes in market conditions by 3 to 6 weeks.
San Francisco Condo Price Appreciation
Median Condo Sales Prices, 2012 – Present, by Quarter
As reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Broker Metrics/Infosparks. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported activity. Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS.
Year over year, the Q2 2024 median condo sales price was down about 2.5%.
Seasonal fluctuations are common. It is not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the calendar year in Q2. Sales prices lag changes in market conditions by 3 to 6 weeks. Different city districts have seen varying median price trends.
San Francisco CONDO Prices: Downtown vs. Non-Downtown
6-Month-Rolling, Median Condo Sales Prices since 2005*
*6-month rolling median condo sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. Does not include new-project sales unreported to MLS. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Comparing median condo sales prices in the greater Downtown/South of Market/Civic Center area (the center of large-project, new-condo construction, office buildings and high-tech employment) – delineated by the white line – with the rest of San Francisco (mostly smaller, older buildings, in less urban environments) – delineated by the green line.
San Francisco Value Trends since 2005
3-Month-Rolling, Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
*3-month rolling median house sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Until the pandemic, the median $/sq.ft. value for condos (green columns) ran significantly higher than for houses, but that is no longer the case.
Median $/sq.ft. value is a general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.
Annual Median HOUSE Sales Prices since 2012
San Francisco Median Sales Prices in Selected Realtor Districts
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Not all sales are reported. Median Sales Price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that may be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
2024 reflects YTD sales reported by 6/30/24. Due to seasonality 2024 reflects YTD sales reported by 6/30/24. Due to seasonality fair market value can be at play in median sales price changes.
Some districts – such as Districts 1 & 4 – contain neighborhoods of very widely varying values. District 7’s low number of sales renders its median price more liable to anomalous fluctuation.
Annual Median CONDO Sales Prices since 2012
San Francisco Median Sales Prices in Selected Realtor Districts
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Many new-project condo sales are not reported. Median Sales Price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that may be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
2024 reflects YTD sales reported by 6/30/24. Due to seasonality issues, partial-year calculations should be considered preliminary until full-year data is available.
In some districts, new condo construction makes year-over-year, apples-to-apples price comparisons difficult.
San Francisco Home Sales Trends, 2021-2024
Year-over-Year, Year-to-Date Sales by Property Type*
*Home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance through June 30th of each year. Not all sales are reported to MLS, including many new-project condo sales. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate, and may change with late reported sales.
The number of home sales occurring each year by June 30th.*
Sales numbers plunged in 2020 after the pandemic hit, then rebounded dramatically in 2021 & the first 5 months of 2022 with the pandemic boom. Soaring interest rates and other economic conditions caused sales to plunge again in 2023, which began to recover in the first half of 2024.
Rental units – mostly in multi-unit apartment buildings – make up the majority of San Francisco housing stock. Houses outnumber condos in the city, but because of constant new construction and the fact that condo owners sell more frequently, condo sales often outnumber house sales.
Condo sales numbers do not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS.
Percentage of Sales Over List Price
San Francisco Market Dynamics by Quarter
Residential activity reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
In Q2 2024, 76% of house sales and 41% of condo sales sold for over the list price. This chart illustrates the % for all home sales.
Higher overbidding percentages signify a higher level of competition for new listings.
Avg. Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage (SP/LP %)
San Francisco Market Dynamics since 2018, by Quarter
Residential market activity reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
100% signifies an average sales price at original list price. Sales Price to List Price percentages for houses remain much higher than that for condos, but this metric can be distorted by underpricing strategies.
New Listings Coming on Market
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. May not include “coming-soon” listings. All numbers should be considered approximate.
The number of new listings in June 2024 continued to drop, but in Q2 was up 4% year over year. New-listing activity usually continues to decline through late summer before spiking back up in September.
Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month
San Francisco Homes Market: Houses, condos, co-ops, TICs, townhouses
* Houses, condos, co-ops, TICs, townhouses: Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Does not include new-project condos not listed on MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. The # of active listings changes constantly.
Of the listings for sale on July 1, 2024, 26% were houses, and 74% were condos, co-ops, TICs & townhouses.*
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Residential activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.
The spring 2024 number of listings going into contract (pending sale) was the highest since spring 2022.
Year over year, the Q2 2024 count rose 9%. Activity typically climbs into spring, drops in summer, spikes back up in fall, and plunges in mid-winter.
The # of listings going into contract measures buyer demand, but is also deeply impacted by the supply of new listings available to buy.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
San Francisco Market Dynamics by Quarter
Residential activity reported to SFARMLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Absorption Rate: The higher the percentage of listings going into contract, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings for sale. The house market (green columns) has had much higher absorption rates than condos, but rates for both rose rapidly in 2024.
Monthly Home Sales Volume
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.
The number of home sales in Q2 rose 9% from Q2 2023. 48% of sales were houses, and 52% were condos, co-ops and TICs.
San Francisco: Number of Home Sales
12-Month-Rolling Totals since 2005*
*12-month-rolling dollar volume of attached & detached home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Does not include multi-family sales, or sales not reported to MLS, such as many new-project condo sales. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Each reading on this chart reflects the total number of 12 months of residential sales reported to MLS. Sales volume is affected by buyer demand, economic conditions, and the inventory of listings available to purchase – all factors very much in play in recent years. 12-month-rolling calculations smooth the trend line and remove the effect of seasonality, but may lag short-term changes.*
Sales volume began to recover in 2024, but it takes a while to show up clearly in 12-month-rolling data. By long-term standards, sales volume remains extremely low.
San Francisco Higher-Price Home Sales since 2018
Houses - $3 Million+, Condos - $2 Million+, by Quarter
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Condos include co-op, townhouse, TIC sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
In Q2 2024, $3m+ house sales (gray columns) were up 34% year over year, and $2m+ condo/co-op sales were up 21%.
Spring (Q2) is typically the dominant selling period for more expensive home sales.
San Francisco Luxury Home Sales*
Homes Selling for $5 Million & Above by Month
*Houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, TICs: Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Does not include sales unreported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.
The number of home sales of $5 million+ in Q2 2024 (April – June) jumped 54% year over year.
The number of luxury home sales typically ebbs and flows dramatically by season, with spring usually the biggest selling season. Autumn also often sees a spike up in sales before the mid-winter slowdown.
Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale
San Francisco Market Dynamics by Quarter
Activity reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. “Condos” include co-op and TIC sales. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Generally speaking, the lower the average days on market to acceptance of offer, the stronger the buyer demand. House listings (white line) in SF sell much more quickly than condos, co-ops & TICs.
Price Reductions on Active Listings
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted to site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
The number of price reductions in June 2024 was down 10% year over year.
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season, but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. It’s not unusual for price reductions to peak in October before the mid-winter holiday slowdown begins in mid-November.
San Francisco Population by Age Segment
U.S. Census Estimates, 2020 – 2023, as of July 1st of Each Year
Per U.S. Census estimates published 6/27/24, population as of July 1st of each year: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2024/population-estimates-characteristics.html. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
The big drop in SF population occurred 2020-2021 after the pandemic struck, with the largest decline in the 25 to 44 age group, probably due to work-from-home. 2020-2023, the only segment to increase in population was of residents 65+ years of age, a common dynamic around the Bay Area. The nation too is skewing older. In 2022-2023, the SF population started to climb again.
Of major U.S. cities, San Francisco has the lowest percentage population of children.
San Francisco Employment Trends
Number of Employed Residents since 2000
Per California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) . Last month’s data is labeled “preliminary” by EDD. EDD often goes back to revise past data releases. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.