June 2024 Market Report
Photo by Maria Jesus Errazuriz on Unsplash
Report highlights:
The 3-month-rolling median house sales price in May, at $1,735,000, hit its highest value since mid-2022. The median condo sales price, $1,135,500, declined about 1% year over year.
Year over year, 2024 YTD home sales volume was up about 12% from 2023, while luxury home sales of $5 million+ soared 62%.
82% of house sales and 44% of condo sales sold for over asking price in May.
House sales averaged a sales price almost 13% over asking price, while condos averaged a sale price about a half percent higher than asking price. Both were the highest percentages since mid-2022.
Average days on market were the lowest in 12 months.30-year-loan interest rates hovered around 7% in May and early June, which many buyers and sellers have clearly come to accept as the new normal. (And an estimated 30% to 40% of national homebuyers have been paying all cash.) Stock markets once again hit new all-time highs, with substantial effect on household wealth. It is not unusual for home listing and sales activity to slow in summer.
30-year-loan interest rates hovered around 7% in May and early June, which many buyers and sellers have clearly come to accept as the new normal. (And an estimated 30% to 40% of national homebuyers have been paying all cash.) Stock markets once again hit new all-time highs, with substantial effect on household wealth. It is not unusual for home listing and sales activity to slow in summer.
Report created in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures may change with late-reported activity. All numbers approximate. Mortgage interest rates vary according to the property, price, borrower and lender. Economic conditions can be subject to significant volatility, even over the short term.
San Francisco HOUSE Price Trends since 1990
Monthly Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling
3-month rolling average of monthly median sales prices for “existing” houses, per CA Association of Realtors or 3-month rolling median per NorCal MLS Alliance. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Year-over-year, the 3-month-rolling San Francisco median house sales price in May 2024 - $1,735,000 - was up 7% to its highest value since summer 2022.
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. More often than not, median sales prices peak for the year in spring.
San Francisco CONDO Price Trends since 2005
Median Condo Sales Price, 3-Month Rolling
3-month rolling median condo sales prices reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Year over year, the 3-month-rolling median condo sales price in May 2024 was down a little more than 1%.
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, and longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.
Year-to-Date Median Home Sales Prices
San Francisco, Year-over-Year Comparisons*
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, January-May of each year, per Infosparks. Median Sales Price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that may be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. 2024 prices may change slightly with late-reported sales.
Comparing the median sales prices of selected standard property configurations for the period of January through May of 2022, 2023 & 2024. Generally speaking, the first 5 months of 2022 saw the end (and peak) of the pandemic boom, 2023 saw a significant decline in values, and 2024 a rebound (more for houses than for condos).
How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
San Francisco CONDO Prices: Downtown vs. Non-Downtown
6-Month-Rolling, Median Condo Sales Prices since 2005*
*6-month rolling median condo sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. Does not include new-project sales unreported to MLS. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Comparing median condo sales prices in the greater Downtown/South of Market/Civic Center area (the center of large-project, new-condo construction, office buildings and high-tech employment) – delineated by the orange line – with the rest of San Francisco (mostly smaller, older buildings, in less urban environments) – delineated by the white line.
San Francisco Value Trends since 2005
3-Month Rolling, Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
*3-month rolling median house sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Median $/sq.ft. value is a general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.
New Listings Coming on Market
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. May not include “coming-soon” listings. All numbers should be considered approximate.
The number of new listings in May 2024 dropped from April, and 4% year over year. New-listing activity usually continues to decline through late summer before spiking back up in September.
Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month
San Francisco Homes Market*
* Houses, condos, co-ops, TICs, townhouses: Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Does not include new-project condos not listed on MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. The # of active listings changes constantly.
Of the listings for sale on June 1, 2024, 27% were houses, and 73% were condos, co-ops, TICs & townhouses.*
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.
San Francisco: Homes for Sale
Active & Coming-Soon Listings by Price Segment*
*Active & coming-soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance on 6/1/24. Not all homes for sale are posted to MLS, especially many new-project condo listings. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Listing numbers change constantly, and all numbers approximate.
There are many more condo, co-op and TIC listings than house listings, and they especially dominate the under $1,500,000 price segments, but the city also has by far the largest luxury and ultra-luxury condo/co-op market in the Bay Area.
Generally speaking, the house market has had significantly stronger market dynamics – higher demand vs. lower inventory – than other property types.
Of the listings for sale on June 1, 2024, 27% were houses, and 73% were condos, co-ops, TICs & townhouses.*
San Francisco Home Sales Trends, 2021-2024
Year-over-Year, Year-to-Date Sales by Price Segment*
*Home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance through May 24th of each year. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate, and 2024 YTD numbers may change with late reported sales.
2021 & 2022 numbers reflect the pandemic boom, though sales began to drop in lower price segments in late spring 2022 due to soaring interest rates. In 2023, high interest rates deeply suppressed both new-listing and sales activity, and in 2024, sales numbers began to rebound.
If prices rise, as they have in 2024, some sales are pushed into higher price segments. (Conversely, if prices decline, some sales drop back into lower price segments.)
Year over year, the number of 2024 YTD sales was up about 12% from 2023, but home sales of $2 million+ saw much larger % gains.
2024 YTD, condos, TICs & co-ops made up over 80% of sales under $1 million and about half of $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 sales.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Residential activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.
The spring 2024 numbers of listings going into contract (pending sale) have been the highest since spring 2022.
The May 2024 count was up 10% year over year.
The # of listings going into contract measures buyer demand, but is also deeply impacted by the supply of new listings available to buy.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
San Francisco: Absorption Rate by Month
*SFARMLS reported data, per Broker Metrics. Not all new-condo project activity is reported to MLS. Last month’s data estimated using available data, may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
In May 2024, the absorption rate for houses was about 40%, and for condos, 19%, reflecting their respective supply and demand dynamics.
Absorption rate measures buyer demand vs. the supply of listings for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market. Absorption rate typically rises and falls to seasonal trends in demand.
Monthly Home Sales Volume
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.
The number of sales in May 2024 rose to its highest monthly count since mid-2022, and was up 16% year over year.
47% of May sales were houses, and 53% were condos, co-ops and TICs.
San Francisco Luxury Home Sales*
Homes Selling for $5 Million+
*Houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, TICs: Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Does not include sales unreported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.
The number of luxury home sales typically ebbs and flows dramatically by season, with spring and fall usually the biggest selling seasons.
Sales of $5 million+ homes in 2024 YTD were up 62% from the first 5 months of 2023.
San Francisco Higher Price & Luxury HOUSE Market
House Sales of $4,000,000+, by District, 12 Months Sales*
*12 months sales and pending sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by late May 2024. Not all luxury home sales are reported. Some pending sales may not close. Neighborhood groupings correspond to SF Realtor districts, which often include adjacent neighborhoods not listed. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
There were 14 house sales of $10 million+ reported to MLS during the 12-month period and 1 listing currently pending sale. Of these, 3 sold for $20 million+.*
There was also 1 sale in Golden Gate Heights (D2) for $5,550,000.
San Francisco Luxury CONDO, CO-OP, TIC & TOWNHOUSE Market
Sales Prices of $2.5 Million+, by District, 12 Months Sales*
*12 months sales and pending sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by late May 2024. Not all luxury home sales are reported. Neighborhood groupings correspond to SF Realtor districts, which often include adjacent neighborhoods not listed. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Some new-project luxury condo sales are not reported to MLS. These projects are mostly concentrated in the South Beach, SoMa, Yerba Buena & Treasure Island neighborhoods (D9).
107 of these sales were condos, 13 were co-ops, 10 TICs and 3 townhouses.*
There was 1 sale of $10 million+ reported during the 12-month period.
Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Houses (green line) continue to sell significantly faster than condos (blue line). Homes typically sell fastest in spring and early autumn.
Measuring how long it takes for sold listings to accept offers. Sales in 1 month mostly reflects accepted offers in the previous month.
Overbidding List Prices in San Francisco
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
Sales data reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Reflecting the percentage of sales closing at sales prices over the final list prices. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Overbidding is typically caused by buyer competition for listings. The overall percentage for SF home sales in May, 62%, was the highest since mid-2022.
The % for houses was 82%, and for condos, 44%, illustrating the different supply and demand dynamics between the 2 markets –even as both have been heating up.
This statistic fluctuates according to seasonal demand trends, and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier. This statistic can be distorted by strategic underpricing strategies by listing agents.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
San Francisco Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Price Reductions on Active Listings
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted to site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
The number of price reductions in May 2024 was down 6% year over year.
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season, but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. It’s not unusual for price reductions to peak in October before the mid-winter holiday slowdown begins in mid-November.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.